rec.sport.basketball.college

Right now, this seems to be a unique year for conferences outside the
big six - in terms of how few teams look like good at-candidates.
Every one of these conferences actually seems to be in danger of
sending only one team to the tournament if things break right. OTOH,
it seems that if things break poorly for the Big Six, there will be a
lot of 2 bid leagues from the outside. It seems like a lot of regular
season champs are in good position for at-large bids but not a whole
lot else.

My analysis by conference:

Horizon:
I'll start with the easy one. Butler is in. Nobody else is on the
bubble. If Butler wins the tournament, this is a one-bid league.
Otherwise it's a 2-bid league.

CUSA:
Memphis is obviously in. UAB and Houston are on the bubble, but
neither has done anything outside of beating Kentucky. I say if
Memphis wins the tournament, this is a one-bid league.

MAC:
Kent State is on the bubble. Nobody else is near it. I like Kent
State's chances of grabbing the at-large if they lose in the MAC
tournament. A road win over St. Mary's and a neutral court win over
Illinois State should keep them in when those names come up. That is
as long as they at least hold on to MAC East 1st place. Neither
Illinois State or St. Mary's is regular season champ, so Kent State
looks good in that comparison, too. I say this is a 2-bid league if
somebody other than Kent State takes the tournament.

MVC:
Drake is clearly in. Illinois State is the bubble team. Their RPI is
good (36), but relatively empty and they have the aforementioned loss
to Kent State. Still, there seems to be recent precedent to giving a
bid based on being the "xth place team in the yth best conference,"
and Southern Illinois is the 2nd best team in the 7th best
conference. I do like the MVC's chances of a 2nd bid. If somebody
other than Drake or Southern Illinois wins the tournament, then I like
that team knocking out Southern Illinois. MVC is in danger of
becoming a one-bid league of Southern Illinois loses the opener and
Drake wins the conference tournament.

WCC:
At this point, I think Gonzaga can safely call themselves in. Won the
WCC, and has wins over Virginia Tech, St. Joseph's, and Connecticut.
I think St. Mary's is more on the bubble than certain publications
suggest. They finished 2nd, and the only standout wins are home over
Drake and home over Gonzaga. They did beat Drake, which Illinois
State could not, but also got pummeled by Southern Illinois, who
Illinois State swept. The loss to Kent State makes the pecking order
among these three Kent State > Illinois State > St. Mary's in my
mind. And St. Mary's probably has to play at San Diego, a team they
lost to in the regular season. Right now, I have St. Mary's in, but
things could break poorly for the Gaels, and leave Gonzaga as the only
WCC team in the tournament.

Colonial:
One team on the bubble and that's VCU. Another place where I like the
at-large chances should they fail to win the tournament. Nothing too
great, but they have wins over fellow bubble teams Houston and
Maryland, and they are regular season champs of the CAA. As long as
they don't go out in the quarters, a different team winning the
tournament is likely to land the CAA 2 bids.

Sun Belt:
I'll put South Alabama along with VCU and Kent State in teams I like
for a bid without winning the league tournament, but not guaranteed.
They do have the solid RPI (29) that's mostly empty, but it does come
with a win over SEC West champion Mississippi State. Plus, their loss
at Vanderbilt was in double OT. If USA wins the tournament, it's a
one-big league for sure, but if not, I'm liking 2 from this league.

Southland:
Stephen F. Austin is marginally on the bubble with an RPI in the 50s
and a win at Oklahoma, but this one's a long shot. I'll stick with
one-bid league no matter what happens here.

Southern:
Davidson just moved into the polls and went undefeated in the league.
Games against North Carolina and Duke were relatively close. The
problem I see with Davidson is that they lost not only to the top tier
teams (Duke, UNC, UCLA), but to the marginally good teams they played
- Western Michigan, Charlotte, . State. And any loss in the
Southern Conference tournament is going to be a bad loss. I'm still
leaning to one-bid league in any case, but enough people seem to like
Davidson that I could be wrong.

Mountain West:
I think BYU probably has to be considered safe now. RPI is 23 and
they have a win over Louisville. The loss to Wake Forest does hurt,
but not enough to knock them out. That's one. I've seen as many as 3
in the usual places with UNLV and New Mexico both in. Right now, I'm
not sure either one deserves it. UNLV did beat BYU at home. But also
lost to Arizona at home. If UNLV loses to New Mexico tonight and then
loses before the finals in the MWC tournament, they should definitely
be out, especially since they have the MWC tournament at home. If
they beat New Mexico tonight, and win at least one game in the MWC
tournament, it seems like their actual RPI number plus lack of top 50
wins from other bubble teams will put them in. For New Mexico, I
still don't see the at-large, but to even be discussed, I would think
they would have to beat UNLV tonight and then make the MWC finals,
where they can only lose to BYU. The MWC becomes a one bid league if
things break wrong for UNLV and New Mexico and then BYU wins the MWC
tournament. Any team other than BYU winning, and I see BYU plus the
tournament winner. And the only way I see the at-large bid outside of
BYU is if UNLV does what I just mentioned.

Atlantic Ten:
This must be one of the most convoluted leagues this year. The teams
that did well outside of conference doing poorly in-conference and
vice versa. Xavier is in. Beyond that, though, they could have no
other teams to 4 other teams. St. Joe's, Massachusetts, Dayton, and
Rhode Island all appear to be on the bubble. Of those, I like
Massachusetts the best right now - away win at Rhode Island, sweep of
Dayton, and win at Syracuse, plus the 2nd best RPI # of the bunch and
very close to Dayton. The one thing both URI and UMASS!!! have going
for them is the wins at Syracuse. Nice try beefing up your schedule,
Syracuse. When you do that, you're supposed to win the harder games,
too, if want in the tournament. Dayton has the best OOC profile of
these teams, but they're 6-8 in conference. Get to 8-8, and I'll
probably say the A-10 has a good shot at 3. I'm not liking St. Joe's
and URI these days. URI's only top 50 win is home over Dayton. St.
Joe's does have the win over Villanova, at URI, and a sweep of UMass,
but the recent home losses to LaSalle, St. Louis, and Temple are
definitely keeping them down. In the end, I doubt the A-10 only ends
up with one bid, but if these 4 teams do poorly this week and in the
conference tournament, tis's possible.